Up late, about to hit the hay but worth noting.
Since 2004 you could compete in the Olympics with the gender you identify as if under hormone treatment for at least 2 years. It wasn't until last year, 2021, that a transgender athlete won gold, and it was a team sport, soccer.
I didn't even make sense in my writing last night I was tired, so here it is laid out better:
Since 2004 athletes could compete in the Olympics with the gender you identify as, if you have been under hormone treatment for at least the previous 2 years. It wasn't until last year, 2021, that a transgender athlete won gold, and it was a team sport, soccer.
So 2004 is when you could start entering.
We've had 5 Summer Olympics in that time.
339 events each, Ill calculate at 300 just because some shit has been added, I dont know if stuff was taken away to balance, also just to throw the anti trans competitor crowd a bone in the stats.
300x5= 1,500 chances for someone to take gold in events since 2004.
It took 16 years for someone who is trans to get a gold, it happened at just this past games, for a team sport.
If its 1 out of 1500 that's a 0.0666666667% gold medal win rate for trans people. (Or for my Pro Wrestling homies, that's your chance of beating Scoot Steiner at Sacrifice)
If we wanted to go further and try to make it even more cautious on our calculations we can cut 1500 in half in case 750 are male versions of the contests, and 750 are female versions of the contests.
Since the consensus seems to be that it would be people born with a penis that would be the ones to transitioning to start dominating over women's events, we can do our calculations for just that scenario.
Even if it was 1 gold out of 750, that's still a gold medal win rate of 0.133333333% for trans people since they have been allowed to enter.
My numbers on events could be wrong because it's hard to find a clear list of number of events and how its divided. But we also slightly inflated the percentages when I counted 300 events instead of the reported 339 just to further give the anti crowd a break.
Thats pretty substantial to me.
Ill be honest I get it and I kind of dont. I get the idea of a 5'2" girl having to compete against a 6'1" person who has transitioned, feeling like its unfair. But competition isn't always divided into experience levels. I have assisted on a couple trail running events and have seen people of the same sex competing in the same event, where one has obviously better genetics (or PEDS) than the other, and that is already a huge difference in ability.
But also imagine in life, how your brain was wired when you were developing, you are essentially a woman trapped in a mans body. A lot of us saw that stuff even at a young age in school. A kid who looked male, or identified as male to everyone, but even their body movements and mannerisms are like a woman is in the brain controlling their behavior. Imagine having that feeling of being trapped in a body you wish was one that represented what you actually are wired as, and wishing your fucking body was different so you could live a normal life. Now you get on hormones to get as close to that as you can, it makes you loose strength, gain fat, its making you less athletic, and you still get shit.
I think what will happen is a breakthrough in hormone therapy that will cause someone to be able to transition to a degree much further than now, or maybe they will extend the amount of time you have to be on the therapy before competition. I'm not sure if the effect peaks at a certain point.