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All that shit aside, and like I said before, it is a statistical inevitability that crime will rise when there is a rise in unemployment and the poverty rates go up. How you choose to protect yourself, if you feel it's necessary to, is up to you.(speaking in a general sense, not you specifically deputy wendall).
I just think a lot of people aren't realizing this. I've been dirt poor and homeless and I stole food to survive. It's just a consequence of extreme poverty. Crime will absolutely rise because of this. Desperation turns people.
The raw number of crimes were lower in 2010, 2011, and 2012 than they were prior to the recession (http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm),
Canada's unemployment is often quite higher than the US and their crime rate is far lower.
Crime rose dramatically in the post WW-II era, despite a booming economy and the majority of Americans moving up.
Crime and poverty are often correlated, but not because most people are out robbing for their daily bread. There are all sorts of criminological theories that attempt to explain this correlation, but the idea it is simply person x needs y so he rationalized and it and stole it is often bullshit.
Um see what happens if welfare won't cover everyone. You think people won't/don't steal to eat? You're crazy dude.
First off, Canada is a totally different ball game than America. I get that you have "ghettos" there but real poverty in Canada is simply not the same as it is in America. Point out any Canadian city that has the crime rates and poverty levels, along with unemployment levels, that North Philadelphia or Baltimore have. I'm pretty sure I'm not allowed in Canada because of my five felonies but if I ever get up there, I'd be happy if you would show me around your ghettos. Then I'll take you down to mine. Like I said, the social services in Canada protect people from the type of poverty that America has. Our number one cause for bankruptcy is medical debt. You literally don't have the issue. You don't have the same problems America has and that's a simple fact and to compare Canadian crime rates to this as an example of why crime won't rise is fucking silly. Plus, all you guys are way too polite to be real criminals. Fucking maple syrup gangs don't count bro(consider this last part to be said in jest).
Have you been to an American ghetto? I've spent a fair amount of my life in the badlands and the kensington area of Philadelphia. Save some other cities in America(Baltimore, Chicago, Newark,..) that are slightly similar in crime rates and poverty, there is no place in Canada like what I'm talking about. Your health care and social services simply cover more people and help many more. I'm sure you want to debate me until the cows come home about Toronto projects or whatever but I assure you, there is literally no place in Canada that comes close to a real American ghetto.
All that being said, when welfare gets cut, when poverty goes up, so does crime.
The last american recession is nothing like this by the way. That affected the housing market in a huge way but there were still swaths of America that were largely left untouched. I lived in Lancaster PA, a fairly well off city. Although home ownership went down, poverty was not a huge issue. Hell, my mother and her husband made over 100k in profit due to the housing bubble bursting while they had a savings because they were able to buy a home when the market was low. I've also spent time(10 months) in Reading PA, one of the most destitute, vagrant cities I've ever stepped foot in. You know the monopoly board? The Reading railroad? Guess what is a shell of itself now because of manufacturing dying in america.Yeah, the fucking city that was put on the monopoly board because it used to be so prosperous. The recession is nothing like this though. Unemployment was not this bad and like I said, certain cities and areas were largely left unscathed in America. That's not the case with covid.
Poverty and crime correlation is real. I've fucking lived it dude. I've seen real desperation and real high unemployment and I've seen the effect that has on communities.
Edit: Also, please don't take this as some ghetto pissing contest. My main point is that comparing canada to america is apples and oranges, with the orange being a rotted out shell of itself, with no real social safety nets, since industry was shipped overseas.
Honestly, I love that you don't respond to facts, and just lean harder on your belief being a fact. It makes for an enjoyable conversation when someone has a "hypothesis" that they treat as a fact. I'm glad you spent years studying crim theory and can explain it all to the rest of us.
You asserted when unemployment goes up crime is going to shoot up, BUT:
1) Other places have higher unemployment and lower crime rates (we don't need to simply focus on Canada, plenty of other places have higher unemployment numbers and lower crime rates). This doesn't support your hypothesis.
2) During the last recession when unemployment increased the raw number of crimes dropped. This doesn't support your hypothesis either.
Not much support for the "common sense" idea that unemployment = dramatic crime rate increases. The reality may be that when unemployment rises fear of crime increases.
You asserted poor economy = higher crime rate.
1) The economy boomed post -WWII and crime went up. Once again, counter your hypothesis.
2) The economy struggled post 2008/9 and the crime rate went down. Once again, counter your hypothesis.
You asserted "when the unemployment runs out blah blah blah"
1) Clinton kicked 50% of the people who were on welfare of welfare in 1996. Crime has been going down since the mid-90s. Once again this shit doesn't line up with your "common sense."
Finally, you seem to misunderstand the term correlation. Correlation means two things are related, not that one causes the other. There is a correlation between impoverished areas and crime rates, but the WHY is not as simple as "poor people are criminals" or "if you become poor you become a criminal."
Not to mention, this indirectly supports the myth that the wealthy don't commit crimes. You have an intense hatred for the "elites," if things are going well for them (and strain and risk of poverty is what causes crime) why are they committing crimes?
The reality is, you just have a deep distrust of people. If thing are going well for them, they are crooks. If things are going poorly for them, they're crooks. No matter what, you are simply going to see disorder around you.
Weird:
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-latzer-crime-economy-20140124-story.html
https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=97234406
https://www.city-journal.org/html/crime-and-great-recession-13399.html
I was specifically talking about America and crime rates related to poverty.
As to the rich criminals, yes obviously people are rich and commit crimes. They aren't out stealing food to live though. That's the type of crime that I'm talking about here. The crime we'll see is coming from people that have lost all safety nets.
For the period 2008-12-
Persons in poor households at or below the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) (39.8 per 1,000) had more than double the rate of violent victimization as persons in high-income households (16.9 per 1,000).
Persons in poor households had a higher rate of violence involving a firearm (3.5 per 1,000) compared to persons above the FPL (0.8-2.5 per 1,000).
The overall pattern of poor persons having the highest rates of violent victimization was consistent for both whites and blacks. However, the rate of violent victimization for Hispanics did not vary across poverty levels.
Poor Hispanics (25.3 per 1,000) had lower rates of violence compared to poor whites (46.4 per 1,000) and poor blacks (43.4 per 1,000).
Poor persons living in urban areas (43.9 per 1,000) had violent victimization rates similar to poor persons living in rural areas (38.8 per 1,000).
Poor urban blacks (51.3 per 1,000) had rates of violence similar to poor urban whites (56.4 per 1,000).
This came from the bureau of Justice Statistics.
https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=5137https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=5508484140a84023a1e2d8b080e14d0aThat's another source where I'm drawing these conclusions from. Finally, this is my final source
http://economics.fundamentalfinance.com/povertycrime.phpAll of these do back up what I said about poverty and crime(at least in my opinion), with the last link backing, with sources, what I am trying to get at.
I understand that I came off not directly responding to your statistics at first. I should have done that, before adding in my anecdotes. That being said, there are plenty of examples of what I'm talking about. My last example points at the correlation of unemployment and violent crime. I get that you're showing examples as well that seem to be well thought out. That being said, I have sincerely spent much of my life in these impoverished areas. I have witnessed sincere poverty and desperation due to poverty. I've seen crimes committed by unemployed individuals because they were hungry and they needed food. I've lived in areas with high unemployment, low home ownership and bad schools. You can accept my anecdotes as false but myself, and others I know, have stolen food, stolen money, stolen property, to stave off hunger. You can believe that high unemployment won't affect crime but I assure you, it absolutely will. In America at least. Canada is not America. It won't ever be America. Someone pointed out that Native American Reservations are the real ghetto in Canada. I truly believe that. That being said, you have no place like kensington or the badlands, like southside Chicago, like west Baltimore, like basically every city in New Jersey, the skid row in LA. You just don't bro. The safety nets that are in Canada simply aren't here.
Again, I don't need to have some ghetto pissing contest. It just kind of seems like you've never been to a real ghetto, or else you probably wouldn't spout off that shit. Cause it's really obvious that poverty and lack of education drive a certain type of crime(obviously not white collar).
Also, and please don't take this the wrong way, but I'm going to stop arguing with you. I feel like we're clogging up the coronavirus thread with our back and forth bickering. PM me if you want okay? I say this all with no malice and I sincerely do understand where you're coming from. I just think we've been down some different roads in life.
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