As a massive Louie fanboy, I hope I'm wrong, but realistically, I don't see him getting SOTY.
His 2022 was amazing, you could not ask for more. 2 of those 3 gems were released on Thrasher. He blends creativity, tech and spot selection like no other. He is inventive and unpredictable, which cannot be said for 2022 Tyshawn who one-ups himself as that same old spots.
I theorise Louie is missing some superficial attribute outside of his actual skating. Perhaps his image, or something to do with marketing. Or, perhaps the Thrasher 'powers that be' value harder tricks than they do an inventive ATV like Louie.
Regardless, them not having any semblance of a criteria is very fishy, and leads them to get away with questionable picks that end up devaluing the prestige of SOTY. 2022 was the year I lost faith in their decision making, T-Funk or even Nyjah deserved it more.
As for 2025, I wouldn't be surprised if Tyshawn got it. He would thrive off becoming the first to win it three times. He is well able to outdo himself as he did in 2018 and 2022. And most importantly, he ticks the Thrasher boxes, whatever the hell they are.