Investing?

[GardenSkater77]

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Very interesting a clear overview of the problem with the modern stock market.

[close]

Where did this come from? Nothing about this video looks real and the silly filter adds to it.

[close]

Yes, it is AI but I like the information and Richard Wolff’s presentation style is really captivating and I agree with most everything he says. Here is the statement from the Mind to Free account:

Mind To Free
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a fan-made channel, and its content is not affiliated with Richard David Wolff or his companies. The videos are inspired by Richard David Wolff's public statements and ideas for educational and motivational purposes only, using a synthesized voice that does not belong to Richard David Wolff. We use visual lip-syncing and dubbed narration to match the spoken words with on-screen footage, purely to enhance clarity, create a cinematic experience, and make the content more engaging for viewers. Our aim is to amplify the original message by making it easier to understand for the end consumer, helping us reach and educate more people with Richard David Wolff's valuable perspectives

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Yea, I'm a fan of Wolff, but this strikes me as something I'm going to stay away from. Putting his likeness and his voice to promote ideas that might sort of be aligned with his views is too far for me.

I'd rather have someone say, "I'm a fan of Wolff and this is my take..." than a bot pretending to be Wolff and a filter to decrease how noticeable AI is.

Okay. I understand. I find the topics interesting and am not bothered by the inauthenticity of the narrator. Have a good night.

[Nosferatu]

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is the ai bubble gonna burst? everything I keep seeing says it is which makes me think it’s not. Too big to fail? Crazy how much money or fake money even our on money is going into this just so it can save companies money. I guess they are thinking long term.

Just looking to have some intelllefual conversations. Idk what to do, I’m kinda big on cash even though inflation? I think I’m gonna become a doomsday prepper.

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AI Bubble is going to burst. It's not if, it's when. There was actually a good article about it in The Ringer this morning of all places, I think it lays out a pretty good, simple case: https://www.theringer.com/2025/11/04/tech/ai-bubble-burst-popping-explained-collapse-or-not-chatgpt

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I have been reading a lot of articles this week and watching the market daily and there does not seem to be any consensus of what to do.

My current investment split is as follows:

40% S&P 500 Index
30% government bonds (Federal and Municipal)
30% Treasury Bills and Cash

One thing I recently did was to move my money to index funds with a low expense ratios (.11, .07, .04, .02). This was based on a simple explanation that if you have $1000 to invest in a fund with an expense ratio of say .5 then for every $1000 you earn John Hancock (my 401K provider) receives $50. There are calculation formulas on line that show that over time this adds up to tens of thousands of dollars.

Disclaimer: I am just becoming interested in investing as I am targeting 2040 retirement.

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If you're with Fidelity, I would recommend one of the free Index funds, personally I have 99% of my investments in FZROX or FNILX. I'm a bit further behind and probably won't retire before 2055 so I can be more aggressive, but even at a 2040 retirement I think you can probably invest more in stocks for more growth.

Obviously the past 5 years the line has basically only gone up and there will be a correction at some point, but I invested $30k in just those 2 funds in 2020 and they've grown 122% to $68k.

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Wow! That is excellent growth. I have always been too scared to put anything more than, say, 60% in the market. This comes from when I began investing in a 401K (2012) and how poor the returns were up until 2020. I barely made anything more than the 4% me and my employer added. But had I known what the last 5 years were going to be like I would have gone with 100% stocks. Still, my conservative strategy has generated 9.2% year over year for the last 13 years so I am happy and shocked by that. It was a hell of a lot less but since April my interest earnings have doubled.

I actually took even more money out of the stock market because I think the rally is going to end. I cannot just leave my money in and see how it goes.

I listened to an investor provide the following strategy and it sounded interesting.

When the market (s&p500) goes up 5% sell 5% of your stocks. When it drops by 5% buy 5%. And so on…

There is more to it than that but that is basically how it goes.

The other observation was that 7 stocks combhave gone up 90% in 3 years while the other 493 stocks have only gone up 25%.

Right now the market is getting by on pure speculation but consumers are so squeezed at the moment that I am worried this holiday season is going to begin a recession. I wanted to get the majority of my money out now so I don’t have to sit and watch thousands of dollars just melt away.

Edit I assume some of you watched The Big Short? Anyway, Christian Bale played Michael Burry who shorted (bet against) major banks who were buying subprime mortgages. Anyway, he has announced that he is shorting Nvida and Palantir. I say this just to make you guys aware so you have one more piece of information.

https://www.mk.co.kr/en/stock/11460214

Note that between 2007-2012 the stock market had zero gains after it lost 40% during the Lehman and Bear Sterns crash. Luckily I had no savings at the time. I just don’t want to see my fellow skaters get hurt if I can help it. That’s all…

And yet if you had continued to buy up stocks from 2007-2012 you would have made all that money back when the market recovered… Unless you have some plan that will outsmart the market (which you don’t) why wouldn’t you just be consistent in the market?

[GardenSkater77]

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is the ai bubble gonna burst? everything I keep seeing says it is which makes me think it’s not. Too big to fail? Crazy how much money or fake money even our on money is going into this just so it can save companies money. I guess they are thinking long term.

Just looking to have some intelllefual conversations. Idk what to do, I’m kinda big on cash even though inflation? I think I’m gonna become a doomsday prepper.

[close]

AI Bubble is going to burst. It's not if, it's when. There was actually a good article about it in The Ringer this morning of all places, I think it lays out a pretty good, simple case: https://www.theringer.com/2025/11/04/tech/ai-bubble-burst-popping-explained-collapse-or-not-chatgpt

Expand Quote

I have been reading a lot of articles this week and watching the market daily and there does not seem to be any consensus of what to do.

My current investment split is as follows:

40% S&P 500 Index
30% government bonds (Federal and Municipal)
30% Treasury Bills and Cash

One thing I recently did was to move my money to index funds with a low expense ratios (.11, .07, .04, .02). This was based on a simple explanation that if you have $1000 to invest in a fund with an expense ratio of say .5 then for every $1000 you earn John Hancock (my 401K provider) receives $50. There are calculation formulas on line that show that over time this adds up to tens of thousands of dollars.

Disclaimer: I am just becoming interested in investing as I am targeting 2040 retirement.

[close]

If you're with Fidelity, I would recommend one of the free Index funds, personally I have 99% of my investments in FZROX or FNILX. I'm a bit further behind and probably won't retire before 2055 so I can be more aggressive, but even at a 2040 retirement I think you can probably invest more in stocks for more growth.

Obviously the past 5 years the line has basically only gone up and there will be a correction at some point, but I invested $30k in just those 2 funds in 2020 and they've grown 122% to $68k.

[close]

Wow! That is excellent growth. I have always been too scared to put anything more than, say, 60% in the market. This comes from when I began investing in a 401K (2012) and how poor the returns were up until 2020. I barely made anything more than the 4% me and my employer added. But had I known what the last 5 years were going to be like I would have gone with 100% stocks. Still, my conservative strategy has generated 9.2% year over year for the last 13 years so I am happy and shocked by that. It was a hell of a lot less but since April my interest earnings have doubled.

I actually took even more money out of the stock market because I think the rally is going to end. I cannot just leave my money in and see how it goes.

I listened to an investor provide the following strategy and it sounded interesting.

When the market (s&p500) goes up 5% sell 5% of your stocks. When it drops by 5% buy 5%. And so on…

There is more to it than that but that is basically how it goes.

The other observation was that 7 stocks combhave gone up 90% in 3 years while the other 493 stocks have only gone up 25%.

Right now the market is getting by on pure speculation but consumers are so squeezed at the moment that I am worried this holiday season is going to begin a recession. I wanted to get the majority of my money out now so I don’t have to sit and watch thousands of dollars just melt away.

Edit I assume some of you watched The Big Short? Anyway, Christian Bale played Michael Burry who shorted (bet against) major banks who were buying subprime mortgages. Anyway, he has announced that he is shorting Nvida and Palantir. I say this just to make you guys aware so you have one more piece of information.

https://www.mk.co.kr/en/stock/11460214

Note that between 2007-2012 the stock market had zero gains after it lost 40% during the Lehman and Bear Sterns crash. Luckily I had no savings at the time. I just don’t want to see my fellow skaters get hurt if I can help it. That’s all…

[close]

And yet if you had continued to buy up stocks from 2007-2012 you would have made all that money back when the market recovered… Unless you have some plan that will outsmart the market (which you don’t) why wouldn’t you just be consistent in the market?

I didn’t start investing until 2012. I’m just saying the market may yield on average 10% per year over a long run but some years are over 10% while other years are below. We have had unprecedented growth over the past 3 years and I just don’t see it continuing. I am not trying to outsmart the market, but I don’t want to watch my money evaporate either. The set it and forget it model may work for you but I don’t like knowing that I am losing money. I have said multiple times that I am not a financial advisor and I am not giving advice nor would I want anyone to follow my recommendations. I am just worried about talk of the bubble and I just want to share my thoughts on the matter.

[TheLurper]

Checked all my stuff this evening.

Crazy how much BTC dropped.

Also, crazy how much of a rip-off Coinbase is. For purchase, they charge a fee and purchases are based off of a 1% spread. For selling they also charge a fee and the 1% spread goes in the other direction.

If someone bought 100 dollars of BTC when it is worth 100K, they'd need it to go up to 106K just to BREAK EVEN.

[Eddy Mitchel]

If you wanna insinuate you got money, then invest in gold.

[skateboardnorth]

If you wanna insinuate you got money, then invest in gold.

  Everyone should hold some gold.  It's all about being diversified with investing.  I was lucky to learn this right away with investing and I've been seeing it pay off.  When one asset goes down, it's neat seeing another asset pick up the slack.

[pugmaster]

Does anyone know of an app that lets a person input information about the cost of a purchase that compares that purchase to what that money might be worth if invested instead? I convinced my niece to start a Roth IRA, and I saw that type of app on social media, but the page refreshed before I could write down the name. I think it would be helpful for her to see how her money could be used best. Also, I believe it would be beneficial for me to use as well when I periodically wander into the Sale Gear Thread.

Thanks in advance, and Happy New Year.

[igrindtwinkies]

Does anyone know of an app that lets a person input information about the cost of a purchase that compares that purchase to what that money might be worth if invested instead? I convinced my niece to start a Roth IRA, and I saw that type of app on social media, but the page refreshed before I could write down the name. I think it would be helpful for her to see how her money could be used best. Also, I believe it would be beneficial for me to use as well when I periodically wander into the Sale Gear Thread.

Thanks in advance, and Happy New Year.

https://www.investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator

[pugmaster]

Thanks @igrindtwinkies , I bookmarked it.

This is the app I saw advertised. It is pretty cool, you can put in the cost for an item and then figure out how much that money would be worth invested. This may very well be my salvation from all the temptation in the Sale Gear Thread!

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.sanca.opportunitycostcalculator&hl=en_US&pli=1

[JM]

Thanks @igrindtwinkies , I bookmarked it.

This is the app I saw advertised. It is pretty cool, you can put in the cost for an item and then figure out how much that money would be worth invested. This may very well be my salvation from all the temptation in the Sale Gear Thread!

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.sanca.opportunitycostcalculator&hl=en_US&pli=1

That sale gear thread is the devil’s work, I tell you.

[GardenSkater77]

Public service announcement. Looks like the markets are starting to deflate. Nasdaq is at a 3 month low. S&P  1 month low. Dollar to Euro 5 year low ($1.00 USD = $0.85 Euro). Oracle (who was supposed to be the data center builder) is at a 1 year low down 50% from a September high. Bitcoin at 1 year low. Salesforce at a 5 year low.

The problem is that AI is going to wipe out a lot of software companies, but it is not expanding as fast as needed (chip and investment shortage, etc.). Also, Trump is destroying the dollar with tariffs, so we have a 5 year weak dollar.

I moved all of my savings to treasury bills 3 months ago and the market has basically been flat. I’m glad I did because everything looks bleak and I couldn’t mentally take the idea that Trump’s policies might screw me out of my hard earned money.

[TheLurper]

lol, my crypto holdings have basically halved in value. I'm still playing with the houses money, but the Trump crypto we can do whatever we want bump seems to be coming to an end.

I have no idea which direction the market is going to go and when it is going to happen, but I read that USFR + SGOV usually pay slightly more than a HYSA.

Is there a predictive market betting on whether the stock market is going to go up or down?

[GardenSkater77]

Aside from my 401K I have all my savings in VUSXX

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vusxx

which basically yields the same as a CD which I thought about doing but unless the CD yields 5%+ I really don’t want to tie my money up for 3.5%.

I may miss out on some gains this year, but after the gains from April 25’ to Oct it seems hard to imagine the stock market will continue at the current pace.

The main data point that I keep hearing is that the P/E ratio is overvalued. There is a school of thought that says we are heading towards a recession similar to what happened after the internet bubble popped 20+ years ago. Looking at the data that was the last time the P/E ratio was similarly overvalued.

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/price-earnings.php

I haven’t looked at what the over/under is for a recession, but ever since Michael Burry began shorting NVIDIA and Palantir I started to pay attention to the AI market and the whole thing just seems to be inflated.it’s going to be really interesting to see how 2026 plays out.

[Enrico Pallazzo]

lol, my crypto holdings have basically halved in value. I'm still playing with the houses money, but the Trump crypto we can do whatever we want bump seems to be coming to an end.

I have no idea which direction the market is going to go and when it is going to happen, but I read that USFR + SGOV usually pay slightly more than a HYSA.

Is there a predictive market betting on whether the stock market is going to go up or down?

SPY calls/puts

[123]

lol, my crypto holdings have basically halved in value. I'm still playing with the houses money, but the Trump crypto we can do whatever we want bump seems to be coming to an end.

I have no idea which direction the market is going to go and when it is going to happen, but I read that USFR + SGOV usually pay slightly more than a HYSA.

Is there a predictive market betting on whether the stock market is going to go up or down?

Crypto has no fundamentals so the only thing people go off are technicals which may or may not be based on anything.  They say 60k is a resistance level.  That said, bitcoin is up 12% today as of me writing this.

[123]

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lol, my crypto holdings have basically halved in value. I'm still playing with the houses money, but the Trump crypto we can do whatever we want bump seems to be coming to an end.

I have no idea which direction the market is going to go and when it is going to happen, but I read that USFR + SGOV usually pay slightly more than a HYSA.

Is there a predictive market betting on whether the stock market is going to go up or down?

[close]

SPY calls/puts

and by extension, VIX

[TheLurper]

Well, this pays better than most HYSAs.

The real bet is will Polymarket be regulated for what it is--gambling--by the end of the year in your state? lol, a recruiter for competing company reached out to a friend of mine for a job. The HM decided not to put him through the interview loop cause they only want people who have worked at DraftKings or FanDuel. It's not gambling though, it is investing. 

[alien porkchop]

are we prepared to buy the impending dip?

[TheLurper]

are we prepared to buy the impending dip?

@alien porkchop , what exactly are you considering?

[alien porkchop]

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are we prepared to buy the impending dip?

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@alien porkchop , what exactly are you considering?

i have not invested much in the past but i recently decided that had to change. my strategy is more about long term stability, and i am not actively trying to sell high and buy low as a practice. but with all the talking heads saying the economic indicators are pointing to a downturn, it seems like a reasonable time to rebalance a portfolio to have more cash and cash equivalents, and then increase buying when the cost basis is lower.

[TheLurper]

Damn, I feel really dumb.

I made an easy $ 30 off the SpaceX IPO, but I feel that if I had been thinking clearly, I could have made a lot more.

I don't believe in Musk, I don't think the company is worth 1.75 trillion, nor do I think humans are going to Mars, but I give SpaceX credit: it gets things into space cheaply, and Starlink has a lot of potential (Amazon completely blew it by not getting its version up and running faster).

However, none of this mattered. I saw a headline about the number of shares offered and the number of purchase requests being completely uneven. The requests were far higher than the number available. I put in a request for 2 shares, knowing I would sell them the day of the IPO.

I got one share at 135 and sold at 170. I should have put every loose penny I had into this and sold during the initial bump. Stoked that Elmo is buying me lunch today, but I feel I could have played this much better if I had really thought about the information available to me at the time.

Can't complain about getting 35 dollars for 30 seconds worth of work, but I feel like a little bit of thought could have netted me a lot more money off this scam IPO.

Edit: I might have underestimated how much QQQ and others buying up SpaceX immediately might float the stock. 

[fakie nollie]

lol