^... I just typed out a ridiculously detailed compare and contrast analysis of KAT's and Victor's shooting numbers and their respective impact on the overall games these two teams want to play. Then my browser crashed and I wept. The tl;dr version is this:
KAT's most effective, most dangerous and most important trait is his elite three point shooting (40% career shooter, 48% over this playoff run). As long as KAT shoots threes early and often--he doesn't even have to make them, although he naturally will--the Knicks offense can work the way it's intended to because the mere threat of KAT shooting opens up space for everyone else.
For Victor, it's the opposite. His shooting is one of the very few aspects of his game that's just average (for now: 35% for his career, 37% over the playoffs). The Knicks will want him to shoot as many threes as they can make him take. If he drains them at a high clip, there's nothing to be done but to tip your cap. It's still very much preferable over just letting him feast in the paint.
I am so fucking excited for this series. I think it's a total toss-up as of now. How's Mitch's pinky? What about Fox's ankle? Are the Spurs just too young and athletic to wear down or will the war they just came out of take its toll at some point? Are the Knicks going to be as rusty as they were in the first three quarters of game 1 against Cleveland? Will Josh Hart just let it fly from the start or does his unwillingness to shoot hamper the Knicks' offense in yet another series opener? Is Dylan Harper a bigger, badder, more athletic Jalen Brunson already? So many questions. I can't wait to find out.
If that’s how it plays out, with KAT able to pull Victor away from the hoop with his shooting, it’s a problem for the Spurs. Even if KAT misses a few, if Victor has to close out on him it opens up the paint for Brunson’s drives. Worse, it lets the knicks bigger, longer guys (OG, Bridges…) get offensive rebounds, which was already a huge problem for SA vs okc.
If Victor can catch it in the paint and score over KAT, advantage Spurs. Especially if KAT gets in foul trouble. Especially if OGs hamstring makes him half a step slow to help.
I wish the nuns could mojo-heal Fox’s ankle and OG’s hammy and let these two teams go at it full strength, as the lawd intended.
Edit: just realized that this post is pretty much me wholesale adopting @scab ‘s theory. It’s a good theory!
I’m interested in what happens if the spurs can make kat just a spot up shooter instead of a passer/facilitator. I think Brunson-ball def. favors the spurs and their physical guards. Kat being a passer is trickier to defend.